The 2027 Elections: President Bola Tinubu’s Path to Victory or Defeat?
By Abbati Bako
As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 presidential elections, President Bola Tinubu faces a daunting task. His chances of re-election hinge on his ability to win over key states, particularly Lagos, Rivers, and the KKK states (Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina). But will his economic policies and political strategies be enough to secure victory?
*The Soft Theorem Areas, Battle Ground Areas, and Swing Areas:
In the game of democratic politics, understanding the soft theorem areas, battle ground areas, and swing areas is crucial. Soft theorem areas are where a candidate can secure at least 65% of the votes, while battle ground areas are where the candidate struggles to get more than 45% of the votes. Swing areas, on the other hand, are where voters are undecided.
*The KKK States: A Key to Victory:
The North West region, particularly Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina, holds significant sway in Nigerian presidential elections due to its large population. In the 2023 elections, the Northern region contributed over 60% of the votes that secured President Tinubu’s victory. However, with the South South and South East being his battle ground areas and the South West being his swing area, President Tinubu faces an uphill battle.
*Rivers State A Crucial Prize:
Rivers State is a critical component of Nigeria’s economy, and its population and economic advantage make it a prized possession for any presidential candidate. Currently under the PDP, President Tinubu must employ strategic tactics to win over the state.
*Lagos State: A Battle Ground Area:
Lagos State, the commercial capital of Nigeria, was a battle ground area for President Tinubu in the 2023 elections. With Peter Obi of the APGA party securing more votes, President Tinubu must rethink his strategy to win over the state.
*A Desperate President?
Many analysts believe that President Tinubu’s economic policies have led to widespread economic precarity, inflation, and stagflation, which may ultimately cost him the 2027 election. This writing cautions President Tinubu against desperation, citing examples of countries where similar situations have led to democratic instability. Instead, President Tinubu should prioritize free, fair, credible, and violence-free elections, allowing Nigerians to make their choice.
*In conclusion, President Bola Tinubu’s path to victory in the 2027 elections is fraught with challenges. To succeed, he must employ strategic tactics, prioritize the needs of Nigerians, and ensure that the elections are free, fair, and credible. Only then can he secure a second term in office and then democracy will continue in Nigeria and be emulated by other Global South especially African Countries.
Abbati Bako, political strategy and communications consultant and alumni of Kent University the UK’s European University and one of the top rankings in the world abbatibako@gmail.com GSM +2349077889959
